Friday Service Play Thread 07/09/2021

[BuzzKill]

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[BuzzKill]

Stephen Oh

PHILADELPHIA @ BOSTON | 07/09 | 7:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -130
ANALYSIS: Interleague series in the AL park, meaning the Phillies add the designated hitter. Boston had the advantage of being off on Thursday and 63 percent of my model simulations have the Red Sox winning this game. Boston has won eight straight at Fenway.

CHI. WHITE SOX @ BALTIMORE | 07/09 | 7:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE +1.5
ANALYSIS: Both teams were off Thursday -- Baltimore wasn't supposed to be, but its game vs. Toronto was rained out. The White Sox opened as -140 moneyline favorites and while my model does favor them to win, 60 percent of simulations have the Orioles covering +1.5 (-120) on the runline.

 

[BuzzKill]

MLB-Martingale

1 units

Cleveland Indians – Kansas City Royals

Cleveland -1.5

 

[sailfish]

romariobtts
IRELAND: Premier Division
St. Patricks – Derry City
Both to Score : YES @ 1.95

 

[sailfish]

over2tips
Brasil : Serie A
Athletico-PR – Bragantino
Over 2

 

[BuzzKill]

XS Sports

MLB
D* Boston -122
C* Baltimore Over 10 -105
C* San Francisco -1.5 +146

 

[BuzzKill]

Matt Severance

FEATURED PICK

N.Y. YANKEES @ HOUSTON | 07/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -135
ANALYSIS: Both teams played yesterday, but the Yankees had to travel from Seattle. Houston barely used its bullpen in a 2-1 home loss to Oakland, ending a six-game skid. This price feels fairly low with the Astros at home and facing fill-in Yanks starter Nestor Cortes, who surely won't go more than 3-4 innings. The lefty has a stellar 1.29 ERA in 21 innings, but this has to be a fluke if you look at his career numbers. Houston's Jake Odorizzi (3-3, 3.70) got a late start to the season due to injury but has been excellent of late, allowing just one earned run in his past four starts. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.

L.A. ANGELS @ SEATTLE | 07/09 | 10:10 PM EDT
SEATTLE +1.5
ANALYSIS: Angels starter Alex Cobb (6-3, 4.60) has been awful on the road this year with a 7.77 ERA in six starts. He allowed five runs in his lone 2021 start vs. Seattle on June 5 and that was in Anaheim. Mariners lefty starter Marco Gonzales is 8-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Angels, who are 5-13 in their last 18 road games vs. southpaws. So, I'm clearly making a case for a Seattle minor upset, but I'll play the runline at -140 to be safe. The M's have been positive money on the RL at home (we won on them Thursday on it vs. the Yankees).

 

[BuzzKill]

Kyle Akins

MINNESOTA -240

 

[BuzzKill]

Justin Perri

CHI. WHITE SOX OVER 10
KANSAS CITY OVER 9.5
SAN DIEGO -1.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Larry Hartstein

N.Y. YANKEES @ HOUSTON | 07/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -130
ANALYSIS: This is a reasonable price on the Astros, who have won six of seven. Jake Odorizzi has allowed exactly one earned run over his last four stats, while the Yankees will start lefty reliever Nestor Cortes. Houston owns MLB's best OPS against southpaws (.797). Lay it.

 

[BuzzKill]

Justin Perri

CHI. WHITE SOX OVER 10
KANSAS CITY OVER 9.5
SAN DIEGO -1.5

CHI. WHITE SOX @ BALTIMORE | 07/09 | 7:05 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: The Orioles have been one of the best teams against left handed pitchers all season and today they get to face LHP Dallas Keuchel in their own stadium, where the Over is 23-16. This line opened at 10.5, and I think the market has incorrectly brought it down to 10. Keuchel has a 1.60 WHIP on the road and is another pitcher at the bottom end of the expected batting average rankings. Opposing him is Jorge Lopez, who owns a 6.02 ERA this season and has allowed less than three runs in only one of his last five starts, giving up 21 runs in 24.2 innings over that span. I'll take the Over.

KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND | 07/09 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: Both of these starters are horrendous so I’ll go Over. Triston McKenzie hasn’t pitched in almost a month and has been worse at home (8.47 ERA) than he has on the road (4.97), though neither side of the split is that great. Opposing him is Brad Keller, who ranks fourth worst in xBA and xwOBA and second worst in xOBP among all pitchers with 200-plus batters faced. Fading Keller is a moneymaker, and I lean Indians moneyline, but due to the unreliability of McKenzie I’ll just take the Over.

COLORADO @ SAN DIEGO | 07/09 | 10:10 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -1.5
ANALYSIS: I will keep picking on the Rockies as they start another series on the road. Colorado has had 13 road series so far this year and lost 12 of the opening games and only covered in four of those. Interestingly enough, the Rockies have covered their last three road openers (losing by just one run to the Mariners, Brewers and Diamondbacks), but the Padres will likely be a different story. The last time Colorado visited San Diego, the Rockies managed only one run in three games. With Blake Snell allowing just a 1.43 ERA and .543 OPS in seven home starts, I expect the Rockies will again struggle. Padres win by multiple runs. Consider the first five spread too.

 

[CADILLACJACK]

Larry Hartstein

N.Y. YANKEES @ HOUSTON | 07/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -130
ANALYSIS: This is a reasonable price on the Astros, who have won six of seven. Jake Odorizzi has allowed exactly one earned run over his last four stats, while the Yankees will start lefty reliever Nestor Cortes. Houston owns MLB's best OPS against southpaws (.797). Lay it.

Biggest fade on here! Thanks for posting

 

[BuzzKill]

John Bollman

N.Y. YANKEES @ HOUSTON | 07/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -130
ANALYSIS: Nestor Cortes Jr. has been solid so far this season, but the Astros have the highest wOBA in the league against lefties. Jake Odorizzi has been solid as well, but especially at home where he is 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA. He hasn’t allowed more than a run in any of his last four starts (all after the sticky substance ban). The Astros are 41-20 against teams over .500 this season, take the Astros at home.

PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. METS | 07/09 | 7:10 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -195
ANALYSIS: Taijuan Walker has been one of the best pitchers in the NL and should be an All Star. He is 4-0 with a 1.52 ERA at home. He has only allowed more than two earned runs in three of his starts this season and hasn’t allowed more than four. The Pirates just won two of three games against the Braves giving us value tonight, but they have also lost seven of 10 games. The Mets are 26-12 at home while the Pirates are 13-29 on the road.

 

[BuzzKill]

Ben Burns

10* under-9.5-kc-clev
9* cubs-155
8* padres-225

 

[Rainz]

JOHN RYAN

• Game: (921) Oakland Athletics at (922) Texas Rangers
  Date/Time: Jul 9 2021 8:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5 units
  Play: Oakland Athletics -133 C Irvin (LHP), J Lyles (RHP) Must Start

 

[BuzzKill]

Docs- Colombia O2.5 -120 (DU)
Docs- Merritt over Champ -130 RD. 2 (DU)
Indian Cowboy - Colombia/Peru BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘YES’ -130 (CU)
Vernon Croy- Angels -130 (DU)
Allen East_man A’s 135 (CU)
Doug Upstone- White Sox -130 (CU)
Doug Upstone- Parlay: Padres RL & Mets (BU)

 

[BuzzKill]

Joseph D'Amico

Joe DAmicos 64 PCT MLB HOME RUN PLAY
Game: (915) Chicago White Sox at (916) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Jul 9 2021 7:05 PM EDT
Play Rating: D units
Play: Chicago White Sox -131 D Keuchel (LHP), J Lopez (RHP) Must Start
Despite missing a few players, the White Sox are still a much stronger squad than the Orioles. They have taken five consecutive meetings over Baltimore, including all four matchups this season. Keuchel (6-3, 4.48) is 4-2 with a 3.23 ERA in nine career starts vs. the O’s. (2-11, 6.02) is 1-2 with a 5.48 ERA in four games (three starts) vs. the White Sox. Chicago is 8-2 L10 vs. the AL East, 7-2 L9 vs. RH starters, 8-3 L11 following an off day, and 7-3 L10 overall. Take the White Sox. Thank you.

 

[FreeKick]

Green Falcon Picks (of Green Pitch Sports)

FC Cincinnati - Columbus Crew
USA, MLS, 01:30 CET (Jul 10) / 7:30 PM ET
2.7 Units: FC Cincinnati 0 -135

 

[Rodney1974]

Any wise guy vip?

 

[BuzzKill]

Matt Severance

FEATURED PICK

N.Y. YANKEES @ HOUSTON | 07/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -135
ANALYSIS: Both teams played yesterday, but the Yankees had to travel from Seattle. Houston barely used its bullpen in a 2-1 home loss to Oakland, ending a six-game skid. This price feels fairly low with the Astros at home and facing fill-in Yanks starter Nestor Cortes, who surely won't go more than 3-4 innings. The lefty has a stellar 1.29 ERA in 21 innings, but this has to be a fluke if you look at his career numbers. Houston's Jake Odorizzi (3-3, 3.70) got a late start to the season due to injury but has been excellent of late, allowing just one earned run in his past four starts. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.

L.A. ANGELS @ SEATTLE | 07/09 | 10:10 PM EDT
SEATTLE +1.5
ANALYSIS: Angels starter Alex Cobb (6-3, 4.60) has been awful on the road this year with a 7.77 ERA in six starts. He allowed five runs in his lone 2021 start vs. Seattle on June 5 and that was in Anaheim. Mariners lefty starter Marco Gonzales is 8-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Angels, who are 5-13 in their last 18 road games vs. southpaws. So, I'm clearly making a case for a Seattle minor upset, but I'll play the runline at -140 to be safe. The M's have been positive money on the RL at home (we won on them Thursday on it vs. the Yankees).

ST. LOUIS @ CHI. CUBS | 07/09 | 2:20 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
ANALYSIS: The winds are blowing in slightly at Wrigley (7 mph), maybe enough to knock down a potential homer or two. The Cubs remain without two of their best hitters in Kris Bryant and Javy Baez (that took me off backing Cubs on the moneyline), so that makes things easier on Cards pitcher Wade LeBlanc, who has a 2.19 ERA in 12.1 road innings. Chicago goes with ace Kyle Hendricks (10-4, 3.83). He has a 2.53 ERA since mid-May, always is better at home and during the day and is a Cardinals killer career (11-3, 2.82 ERA). Hendricks has never allowed more than four runs at home against the Cards. I bet this total drops to 8.